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235,233 Deaths, 3,335,366 Corona Virus Infections, Mostly in the US, Italy, UK, Spain, France, Belgium, Germany, Iran, Brazil, Netherlands, and China

May 1, 2020 

Medical assistants wait to be handed testing kits at a drive-up coronavirus testing site in Seattle, Washington, file, May 1, 2020

 

World 3,335,366 infection cases, and 235,233 deaths.

As of May 01, 2020, 14:59 GMT 

A list of countries with the highest Coronavirus (Covid-19) deaths:

USA 1,100,313 cases, 64,018 deaths.

Italy 205,463 cases, 27,967 deaths.

UK 171,253 cases, 26,771 deaths.

Spain 239,639 cases, 24,824 deaths.

France 167,178 cases, 24,376 deaths.

Belgium 49,032 cases, 7,703 deaths.

Germany 163,331 cases, 6,632 deaths.

Iran 95,646 cases, 6,091 deaths.

Brazil 87,187 cases, 6,006 deaths.

Netherlands 39,791 cases, 4,893 deaths.

China 82,874 cases, 4,633 deaths.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

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WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19

WHO, 29 April 2020

العربية 中文 Français Русский Español

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening.

As of tomorrow, it will be three months since I declared a public health emergency of international concern over the outbreak of novel coronavirus.

Today I’d like to take a few moments to look back at the period preceding that announcement, to be clear about what WHO knew, and what we did.

On the 31st of December, WHO’s Epidemic Intelligence System picked up a report about a cluster of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan, China.

The following day, New Year’s Day, WHO asked China for more information under the International Health Regulations, and activated our Incident Management Support Team, to coordinate the response across headquarters, and our regional and country offices.

On the 2nd of January, WHO informed the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network – or GOARN – which includes more than 260 institutions in more than 70 countries.

Yesterday was GOARN’s 20th birthday, and I’d like to use this opportunity to say happy birthday to GOARN, and thank you and congratulations to every single GOARN member for their commitment to responding to the COVID-19 pandemic and many other emergencies. We’re really proud to work with you.

On the 3rd of January, China provided information to WHO through a face-to-face meeting in Beijing, and through WHO’s Event Information System established under the International Health Regulations.

On the 4th of January, WHO reported the cluster of cases on Twitter. At that stage, no deaths were reported.

On the 5th of January, WHO shared detailed technical information through its Event Information System. This included advice to all Member States and IHR contact points to take precautions to reduce the risk of acute respiratory infections – providing guidance on the basis that there could be human-to-human transmission.

On the same day, WHO also issued its first public Disease Outbreak News, publishing technical information for the scientific and public health communities, as well as the world’s media.

On the 10th and 11th of January, WHO published a comprehensive package of guidance on how to detect, test for and manage cases, and protect health workers from potential human-to-human transmission, based on our previous experience with coronaviruses.

We also published a readiness checklist to help countries assess their capacities and gaps for detection and response.

Because Wuhan is a major domestic and international transport hub, WHO also advised that the risk of cases being reported from outside Wuhan was increased.

On the 11th of January, China shared the genetic sequence of the virus for countries to use in developing testing kits.

On the same day, China reported the first death from the new coronavirus.

On the 13th of January, the first case was reported outside China, in Thailand.

That day, working with partners, WHO published the first instructions for how to make PCR-based diagnostic test kits, enabling the world to find cases.

On the 14th of January, WHO tweeted reports from China that preliminary investigations by Chinese authorities had found no clear evidence that human-to-human transmission was occurring.

This is in line with our practice of reporting to the world information that countries report to us. We post country reports as is.

However, earlier the same day, WHO held a press briefing at which we said that, based on our past experience with coronaviruses, human-to-human transmission was likely. Our senior experts participated in that press conference, and that news was carried by mainstream media.

On the 20th and 21st of January, WHO staff visited Wuhan, and on the 22nd, reported that the evidence suggested human-to-human transmission was occurring.

On the 22nd and 23rd of January, I convened the Emergency Committee, consisting of 15 independent experts from around the world. At the time, 581 cases had been reported, and only 10 cases outside China. The Emergency Committee was divided in its opinion, and did not advise that I declare a public health emergency of international concern.

The Committee asked to be reconvened in 10 days or less to allow time for more information and evidence to be collected and considered.

On the 27th of January, I traveled to Beijing with WHO’s chief of emergencies, Dr Mike Ryan, and other senior WHO staff, and met with President Xi Jinping and other leaders to learn more about the response and offer WHO’s assistance.

We discussed the seriousness of the situation, and agreed that an international team of scientists should travel to China to look into the outbreak and the response, including experts from China, Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Nigeria, the Russian Federation, Singapore and the United States of America.

On the 30th of January, I reconvened the Emergency Committee and after receiving their advice, because of the new information gathered they had a consensus, I declared a global public health emergency – WHO’s highest level of alarm.

At the time, as you may remember, there were less than 100 cases and no deaths outside China. To be specific, we had 82 cases outside China, and no deaths, when we declared the highest level of international emergency.

From the beginning, WHO has acted quickly and decisively to respond and to warn the world.

We sounded the alarm early, and we sounded it often.

We said repeatedly that the world had a window of opportunity to prepare and to prevent widespread community transmission.

We started our early press conference. People were saying the world will be tired of you if you’re making a press conference every day, but we didn’t mind. We wanted to make sure the world understands what WHO is saying.

WHO is committed to transparency and accountability.

In accordance with the International Health Regulations, I will reconvene the Emergency Committee tomorrow – because it’s almost 3 months since we declared the highest emergency and that’s what was suggested by the Emergency Committee – to evaluate the evolution of the pandemic, and to advise on updated recommendations.

In the three months since the Emergency Committee last met, WHO has worked day in, day out to sound the alarm, support countries and save lives.

We’ve worked with countries to help them prepare and respond.

We’ve brought countries together to share experiences and lessons learned.

We’ve brought together thousands of experts to analyze the evolving evidence and distil it into guidance.

We’ve convened researchers to identify priorities, from all over the world.

We’ve launched a large international trial to find answers fast about which drugs are the most effective.

We’ve brought together a consortium of countries and partners to accelerate the development and equitable distribution of vaccines, diagnostics and therapeutics.

We’ve shipped millions of test kits and tons of protective gear all around the world, focusing on those countries who need our support most.

We’ve trained more than 2 million health workers – to be exact, 2.3 million health workers around the world. We don’t think that’s enough, we will train more.

We’ve worked with tech companies to fight the infodemic.

We’ve kept the world informed in multiple ways, including these regular press conferences, answering your questions.

We’ve brought together entertainers to provide music and laughter, even in these dark times, using this opportunity to thank Hugh Evans from Global Citizen and Lady Gaga.

And we’ve watched with admiration as the world has come together in solidarity to fight this common enemy.

We share the grief and pain of so many people around the world, and we share the hope that we will overcome this pandemic together.

There’s one thing we haven’t done: we haven’t given up. And we will not give up.

Our commitment remains to serving all the people of the world with science, solidarity and solutions, but above all with humility and respect to all people and nations.

WHO is now working to provide the critical strategies, solutions and supplies that countries will need in the coming weeks and months.

One thing that we would ask is unity at the national level, and solidarity at the global level. More than ever, the human race should stand together to defeat this virus.

I have said it before: this virus can wreak havoc. It’s more than any terrorist attack. It can bring political, economic and social upheavals. But the choice is ours, and the choice should be unity at the national level. The choice should be global solidarity, standing in unity.

Thank you.

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---29-april-2020

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When will US reach 100,000 deaths? After a horrific April, grim milestone could hit in May

By Jorge L. Ortiz

USA TODAY, Mat 1, 2020  

In light of a horrific April that saw close to 60,000 Americans lose their lives because of the coronavirus, bringing the national total to more than 63,000, it’s fair to ponder whether the U.S. will reach 100,000 deaths.

Researchers are hard at work trying to come up with an answer and there’s no clear consensus, but one telling fact stands out: The number of deaths the U.S. endured in April is larger than the combined total during the entirety of the pandemic for the next two countries on the list, Italy and Great Britain (54,738).

How much worse will it get? At one point, White House officials projected 100,000 to 240,000 deaths, even with social distancing restrictions, but they have since lowered the expected figure considerably.

The answer will depend in part on the public response to measures implemented throughout the country, which are starting to get relaxed because of the heavy toll they’ve taken on the economy. At least 30 states are planning to reopen in one form or another by this weekend.

And determining whether the death rate is on the rise or decline has been a difficult proposition. It can be argued that the peak of the virus hit on April 16, when the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus database recorded 4,591 U.S. deaths in a single day. That peak occurred in the same week when New York City reclassified several thousand deaths as coronavirus related.

But the daily death figures have not been steadily declining since then.

The past three days are an illustration of that. Tuesday's death toll was 1,378, but the next day the total shot back up to 2,096. And on Thursday, it increased again: 2,612 people died on that day. 

Looking at the numbers through the prism of state death totals presents a worrisome picture of the past few weeks. New Jersey reported a new single-day fatality high of 460 deaths on Thursday. And Massachusetts added 1,000 new deaths in five days this week as the pandemic peaks in that state.

A number of states with the largest increases in COVID-19 cases in the past week have no statewide stay-at-home orders, such as Nebraska and Iowa, which reported a 70% and 86% increase, respectively, in new cases per 100,000 residents over the seven days ending on April 29, according to 24/7 Wall Street.

For now, the widely cited COVID-19 model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, often used as reference during White House media briefings, projects 72,433 deaths by Aug. 4, though with a maximum range up to 114,228.

The IHME model, which has predicted at most 93,000 deaths, uses mobility data gathered from four companies, including Google and Facebook. After adding recently available numbers for presumptive deaths – those not tested but believed to have been killed by the virus – the model’s forecast rose from 67,000-plus deaths to 72,000-plus.

Ali Mokdad, a public health researcher who teaches at the IHME and was previously an official at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the model takes into account constraints to combat the pandemic, but he doesn’t expect their relaxation will lead to a huge surge in predicted deaths.

“We are seeing an increase in mobility, but remember, when they ease the restrictions, say in Georgia or in Texas or in Florida, people are not going to go back to what we call normal,’’ Mokdad said. “They will practice social distancing, they’re going to be wearing masks, they’re going to be afraid. Even when some businesses are opening, many people are not going.’’

The IHME model has been accused of being overly optimistic. Others predict the nation will reach 100,000 deaths in the latter part of May. That’s the case for the model produced by the Los Alamos National Laboratory, which features detailed state-by-state information that includes one-week and six-week forecasts as well as situational updates.

Youyang Gu, a data scientist whose model is one of seven listed by the CDC website, concurs with the late-May estimate for reaching six figures. Gu’s COVID-19 Projections, which relies on data from Johns Hopkins to forecast future deaths through a combination of artificial intelligence and a classic infectious-disease model, factors in the expected loosening of stay-at-home orders.

Gu foresees as many as 166,000 deaths from COVID-19 by Aug. 4, more than twice as many as the IHME, and trouble ahead for states reopening without knowing whether the virus has been contained.

“We believe this will cause the infection rate to increase in those states, leading to a ‘second wave,’’’ Gu said.

Scientists studying the virus’ impact generally agree the confirmed tally of cases – currently at 3.25 million worldwide and approaching 1.1 million in the U.S. – falls well short of the actual totals for a disease that can be transmitted by asymptomatic carriers.

© Michael Holahan, The Augusta Chronicle / USA TODAY Today After opening following the coronavirus pandemic, Shelley Craft, owner of The Men's Refinery BarberSpa gives a haircut to Kenneth Gregory at her salon in Augusta, Ga., Friday morning April 23, 2020.

Likewise, death counts fail to take into consideration the number of people who may have perished for reasons indirectly related to COVID-19, such as those whose life-threatening conditions did not get treated because of the crisis. Data released this week by the CDC indicates several thousand “excess deaths’’ not directly attributed to the coronavirus may be linked to it.

“This is clearly another important impact of the pandemic that should be influencing policy decisions,’’ said George Barbastathis, a professor of mechanical engineering at MIT who was the co-developer of the school’s model.

Neither that model – which accounts for infections but not deaths – nor the one developed by the University of Texas at Austin forecasts the day the U.S. may reach 100,000 deaths.

The latter, which relies on mobility and mortality data, aims for a narrower focus than others and won’t predict beyond three weeks ahead. By May 20, the UT model estimates the U.S. death toll at between 67,938 and 78,797.

School researchers are also among those keeping a close eye on developments as states loosen restrictions.

Lauren Ancel Meyers, a professor of integrative biology and statistics and data sciences who leads the university’s COVID-19 Modeling Consortium, said whether the pandemic resurges will hinge on several factors: the public’s efforts to limit contact and take precautions; the effectiveness of programs to test, contact-trace and isolate; and attempts to protect high-risk populations.

“If COVID-19 does start spreading more quickly, it will take several weeks before we see the impact in the mortality data,’’ Meyers said. “Since COVID-19 deaths typically occur several weeks after a person is infected, an increase in transmission around May 1 may not be apparent in the mortality data until the end of May.’’

 For anyone thinking the worst was over in April, those are sobering words.

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: When will US reach 100,000 deaths? After a horrific April, grim milestone could hit in May

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/when-will-us-reach-100-000-deaths-after-a-horrific-april-grim-milestone-could-hit-in-may/ar-BB13t9z2?ocid=msedgntp 

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